Newsletter

Did We Beat The Market In 2016? Outlook For 2017

Good Morning,
 

Welcome to 2017. We hope that you all had a restful holiday. 

U.S. equities closed higher after hitting all-time highs on Friday as the technology sector led, while investors parsed through key employment data.

The Dow also came within 0.37 points of hitting 20,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 gained 0.35 percent and posted intraday and closing record highs, with information technology advancing 1 percent.

The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in December, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters expected an increase of 178,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.7 percent, in line with expectations. On balance this was a good report as forward momentum remains intact. 

Nevertheless, certain investors are getting nervous about all the money pouring into U.S. stocks. We would agree. 
 

Our Take
 

For our humble reflections on 2016 and our thoughts on where economies/markets are and where they may be headed in 2017, we have published the outlook half of our annual letter to our unit holders. You can find it here. 


Teaser: 
 

“2016 proved to be a good year for the "active" investor and 2017 will unfold similarly as 3 big picture investment themes suggest continued volatility and divergence.” 

*If you would like to read a copy of our entire 18 page annual letter to our unit holders please contact us. In it you will find a detailed description of our investment approach, our activities in 2016 as well as out outlook for 2017. 

 

Musings Special: How Have Our Picks Performed Since Publication?

 

A lot of managers and analysts make stock picks yet are they held accountable? Here is a performance report card of the publicly disclosed (published) picks we made in 2016: 
 

Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) - Total Return since January 21st, 2016: +27.23%

IBM (NYSE: IBM) - Total Return since January 11th, 2016: +32.09%

Global Brass and Copper Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BRSS) - Total Return since January 13, 2016: +62.49%

Jack Henry & Associates Inc. (NASDAQ: JKHY) - Total Return since January 26th, 2016: +18.64%

Credicorp (NYSE: BAP) - Total return since March 1st, 2016: +41.88%

Munro Muffler (NASDAQ: MNRO) - Total Return since March 18th 2016: -15.16%

Dorman Products (NASDAQ: DORM) - Total Return since March 18th 2016: +30.93%

Rocky Mountain Dealerships (TSE:RME) - Total Return since April 7th, 2016: +65.36%

Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY) - Total Return since April 22, 2017: +34.44%

Renasant Corp (NASDAQ: RNST) - Total Return since April 24th, 2016: +23.47%

Agrium (TSE: AGU) - Total Return since August 26th, 2016: +18.59%

Enghouse Systems (TSE: ENGH) - Total Return since August 26th, 2016: -0.43%

Luxoft (NYSE: LXFT) - Total Return since August 26th, 2016: +19.93%

Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ: CALM) - Total Return since September 14, 2016: -1.49%

J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) - Total Return since since September 14, 2016: -3.1%

 

If you had bought 1 share of each of these companies upon publication and held until Jan 6, 2017 your portfolio would have returned roughly: +23.65%

This year we have again provided the MoneyShow with our top 4 picks for 2017. Unfortunately, they are scheduled to be published next week so we will provide you with the links in the next letter. The picks are: 

 

Peter Mantas: 

Huntington Ingalls Industries (NYSE: HII): +5.05% YTD

Cemex SAB de CV (NYSE: CX): 0% YTD

 

Matthew Castel:

Aaron Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON): -1.06 YTD

Syntel (NASDAQ: SYNT): +3.03% YTD

 

How Did Logos LP Perform In 2016?

As of December 30st 2016 on a total return basis for the year, Logos LP has returned 22.9% in CAD whereas the S&P 500 has returned 11.67% in USD and the TSX has returned 21.11% in CAD. On an unlevered cumulative basis, Logos LP’s units have appreciated 52.88%. Since inception on March 26th 2014 a Logos LP unit holder would have earned an unlevered annualized net return of 19.22% in CAD, outpacing both the S&P 500 and TSX composite indexes during that time span in their respective currencies. 
 

To put this performance in perspective the Barclay Hedge Fund Index which is a measure of the average return of all hedge funds (excepting Funds of Funds) in the Barclay database showed a 2016 YTD performance of 6.18%.
 

Data from HFI was even worse indicating that the average investor in a hedge fund in 2016 would have seen their money grow a mere 2.5%. 
 

Based on data from Openfolio a network with more than 70,000 members who share their investment portfolios, the average investor had a gain of roughly 5% in 2016. 
 

We had a pretty good year but we believe we can do much better. 

 

Thought of the Week

 

"There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.” -Ernest Hemingway



Stories and Ideas of Interest

 

  • Is Donald Trump the modern day Mussolini? President-elect Donald Trump’s targeting of corporations, to make them change their practices, is reminiscent of policies in Italy under dictator Benito Mussolini, according to billionaire bond manager Bill Gross. To be honest I am already growing weary of Trump’s disruptive tweets. It isn’t clear to me why the most influential man in the world would bother to tweet about things like the new star of The Apprentice yet threatening publicly traded companies via twitter is concerning. Furthermore, with no known special security protections @realDonaldTrump could be exploited for financial gain, to cause geopolitical instability or worse. It is now in fact the most powerful publication the the world as it has moved markets, conducted shadow foreign policy, and reshaped the focus of media around the world. The irony of Trump’s Twitter interventionism in US business is that Ford’s bow to Trump benefits robots, not workers. 

     

  • 10 charts for tracking whether Trump is delivering on his economic promises. Quartz has provided an at-a-glance dashboard for measuring the economy under president Trump. They have collected 10 indicators that reflect his main campaign promises, with data from the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations to provide context. They’ll update the data as Trump puts his plans into action. Things are tense as millennials aren't so optimistic. In fact, this generation is the only one to say they're feeling worse, financially, about 2017 than 2016. 

         

  • What history says has to say about the economy trump will inherit. Interestingly, research suggests factors beyond the control of any U.S. president, not their actual policies, set the course of the economy. Yet with voters, President-Elect Donald Trump will secure much of the praise or blame when it comes to the impact of his agenda over the next four years.


     

  • The Ultimate Authoritative Unimpeachable Top 20 Books of 2016. You could easily read so many best-books-of-the-year rankings that you’ll never get around to reading the actual books. Kira Bindrim has saved you the bother by aggregating dozens of rankings to create a master list. 

          

  • Bloomberg News reporters in more than 100 cities will cover the stories that matter most in 2017. Here's a selection of key events for the year, plus links to related QuickTake guides. QuickTakes highlight the underpinnings of complicated subjects, providing a concise, fun-to-read entry point to current debates. 

     

  • The year in technology: 2016 in charts. Bloomberg puts together a nice visual compilation of some of the most significant 2016 events in tech. Also don't miss IBM's annual list of 5 innovations that it thinks will change our lives within 5 years.

     

  • Travel in 2017. Today’s fast-changing, hyper-globalized world has no shortage of incredible travel opportunities. This year, Bloomberg has done all the legwork for you in rooting out the best, pinpointing the biggest hotel openings and cultural events of the year—along with the places you’ll want to see now, before they change forever. Looking to retire? CNBC puts together a list of the best spots worldwide to do so. 
     

All the best for a productive year,

Logos LP

How Did Our Top Picks For 2016 Perform? Happy Holidays!

Good Morning,
 

Happy Holidays from Logos LP to you and yours!

Not much to report this week.

U.S. equities closed mostly flat on Friday ahead of the Christmas holiday, as the Dow Jones industrial average failed again to reach the psychologically important level of 20,000.

Canada’s gross domestic product shrank unexpectedly in October as factories suffered their worst month in almost three years, adding to signs the country’s outlook is worsening. The GDP numbers add to recent indicators showing low interest rates and a program of federal government stimulus are so far failing to spur a recovery.

Nevertheless, growth in the U.S.A. should help the TSX to continue its march in 2017. The question is whether and for how long there will be growth. Here’s a frightening factoid for Donald Trump as he prepares to take office next month: Every Republican president since World War II has been in power during at least one recession. Can Trump escape history?

 
Musings
 

Over the next week we will be finishing up our outlook for 2017, as well as assembling our top 4 ideas for the MoneyShow’s 2017 Top Manager Picks Symposium.

Looking back at the performance of our top 4 picks for 2016 which were published by the MoneyShow at the beginning of the year:
 

Peter Mantas:
(NYSE: BRSS) : +63.15%
(NASDAQ: JKHY) : +14.54% 

Matthew Castel:
(NYSE: IBM) : +21.14%
(NYSE: MPC) : -2.04%

If you had blindly bought and held all 4 of these picks in an equal weight portfolio you would have returned 23.85% unlevered YTD.

Stay tuned for our next letter when we offer a similar audit of the other picks we made publicly in 2016 as well as report our 2016 return for Logos LP fund. 

 

Thought of the Week

 

"The is only one happiness in this life, to love and be loved." -George Sand
 


Stories and Ideas of Interest

 

  • The U.S. is now a country that can be ignored. Interesting piece in Bloomberg this week suggesting that one of President Barack Obama's most important legacies is a sense that the U.S. is no longer the dominant global power: It can be ignored. It's a new reality that became apparent this year as various authoritarian regimes and populist movements have tested it out.

     

  • The modern economy is suffering from a spiritual crisis. The main source of meaning in American life is a meritocratic competition that makes those who struggle feel inferior.

           

  • A call for a new strenuous age. Fascinating piece in “The Art of Manliness” deconstructing the great paradox of the modern age; on paper we’ve made the kind of technical progress that should lead to life feeling absolutely amazing…but it doesn’t. Perhaps we should look back to move forward…

     

  • How to win your next political argument. You’ve probably gotten in a political argument in the recent past, whether with your nutso cousin at Thanksgiving or your militantly ignorant co-worker at a happy hour. And you’ll probably get in another political argument sometime in the near future. Hard as it may be to believe, you can actually win these arguments. Here’s how.

          

  • The long-term jobs killer is not China. It’s automation. No candidate talked much about automation on the campaign trail. Technology is not as convenient a villain as China or Mexico, there is no clear way to stop it, and many of the technology companies are in the United States and benefit the country in many ways.

 

 

  • 4 ways to control your emotions in tense moments. The ability to recognize, own, and shape your own emotions is the master skill for deepening intimacy with loved ones, magnifying influence in the workplace, and amplifying our ability to turn ideas into results. Joseph Grenny for HBR shows how his successes and failures have turned on this master skill more than any other.

     

All the best for a productive week,

Logos LP

A Tough Short But An Interesting Long

Good Morning,
 

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower Friday, with financials lagging, following some renewed concern of geopolitical tension.

Reuters reported in late morning trade that a Chinese Navy warship has seized an underwater drone deployed by an American oceanographic vessel in international waters in the South China Sea, triggering a formal diplomatic protest from the United States and a demand for its return, a U.S. defense official told the newswire.

 
Our Take
 
We talked a bit about Grey swan risks last week. With U.S./China relations in a bit of slump since Trump was elected, it is worth remembering that life, like markets operates in cycles. If you find yourself in a high, begin preparing yourself for the next low. Without fail it is coming.
 
Nevertheless, this rally is tough to short. Investors are facing a swift transition to an activist and all-business American government. Trump has kept his cards close to his chest but the new strategy is set with a firm focus on jobs, incomes, infrastructure, and a desire to put an end to humiliating declines in the quality of American education and healthcare.
 
As Dr. Michael Ivanovitch for CNBC has stated: “These are the things that markets are betting on. Rest assured that Mr. Trump and his Wall Street appointees fully understand the conditionality of that welcome mat.”


Musings

As we prepare our best ideas and outlook for 2017 we came across this interesting long opportunity in Europe:
 
CRH PLC (ADR): Although industrials and construction have been the story in North America of late, could there be opportunity in Europe? In this name we see strength in construction materials, concrete and plumbing units. This company experienced rapid growth in 2015 and is trading at nearly 16.5 times forward earnings, only 1x sales and 2x book value. The company is in a cyclical industry yet has managed to growth revenue by 50% since 2006 and during the bull run of 2006-2008 saw a revenue increase of over 11%. Interestingly, the company generates more revenue and profit today but is trading below its 2006 levels and has a low price to cash flow ratio of 10x. Look for a dip below $30 as a good entry point. As for the macro infrastructure tailwind, we believe it has about 3 good years to play out before the sector reaches fair value. 
 

Thought of the Week

 

"What was scattered gathers. What was gathered blows away." -Heraclitus

 


Stories and Ideas of Interest

 

  • Contrarian indicator? Could hoarding be a sign of a healthy economy? The boom in self-storage units suggests Americans are buying more than ever.  

     

  • Trump’s cabinet picks have more money than a third of all Americans combined. The most affluent cabinet ever boasts $9.5 billion in total wealth. This is actually incredible. Talk about flair…
  • Sometimes disruption is staring you right in the face and you can’t help but look the other way. That’s doubly true when you’re the head of a legacy business desperate to stay relevant. Small players have historically changed the business landscape when the older guys aren’t aware enough or nimble enough to respond. Cb Insights puts together some great examples of big CEOs and executives who minimized disruptive threats when they appeared. When asked about these smaller players at the time (and even now) some companies have remained woefully dismissive.

 

  • Excuses Excuses. Or realism at work? America’s largest pension fund: A 7.5% annual return is no longer realistic. Probably smart to temper expectations...Although stocks do tend to rise....
  • Investing is maybe 60% science, the rest art. Yes, it has numbers and formulas and rules. But the soft stuff you can’t measure or hardly even describe – the art of the business – makes all the difference in the world. Building a valuation model is a science. Calibrating it to reflect the psychology of uncertainty is an art. Morgan Housel offers an interesting look at the art of investing.

 

All the best for a productive week,

Logos LP

Should The Trump Rally Concern You?

Good Morning,
 

U.S. equities closed at all-time highs on Friday, as the major indexes posted their best week since the election.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 130 points heading into the close, with 3M and Apple contributing the most gains.

All major indexes have been hitting record highs since the election. In fact, the Dow has notched 14 record closes since then and gains in 20 of the past 24 sessions.


Our Take


Although this rally is impressive, one should always pause and take the temperature of the market. Think of it as tying oneself to the mast as Odysseus did when the seductive Sirens attempted to lull his crew to destruction. What songs are the sirens singing now? What they seem to be chanting is a pro growth Trump administration. Is there logic to their songs? 

 

Considering Trump’s potential to spend on infrastructure I read a great piece this week in Quartz which took a sober look at this hypothesis.

 

The author pointed out that markets are anticipating a big increase in spending and thus interest rates will begin to rise quite soon (they already have with news of a Trump victory as reflected by the yield on the 10 year). Higher interest rates will make all kinds of investment more expensive and can dampen growth. Meanwhile, the benefits of the infrastructure projects won’t appear for several years.

 

Thus, it seems how well Trump’s infrastructure plan will work will depend on how patient he is. Given the state of the economy, boosting economic growth will require picking useful infrastructure projects. These projects will have to have the potential to boost America’s productive capacity for years to come. As such, they might also leave a powerful legacy (imagine the Trump dam or Donald Trump bridge). But odds are those kinds of projects won’t confer much economic benefit, only cost, during his reign as president. And just how comfortable will Trump and his administration be with delayed gratification? How comfortable will the struggling white working class be?

 

In fact, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s future policy stance poses “the single largest risk to the global economy,” according to a client survey by forecasting firm Oxford Economics Ltd. More than half of respondents said that the probability of a sharp slowdown has increased over the past three months, according to the firm’s Nov. 14-21 survey on global risk perceptions conducted among about 180 clients and contacts. The main fear is a potential trade war with China. 

 

What would this even look like? Interesting article in Quartz highlighting which US companies would suffer most if a trade war broke out: 

 

Based on some these concerns should we be skeptical of the “Trump Rally”? Well the same study above also sited Trump as the most likely source of faster global growth, with 38 percent citing the potential for the U.S. economy to surge on new fiscal stimulus he has proposed…Does anyone know anything? If things do improve look to increase exposure to small caps as they will benefit the most from potential regulatory reforms. 

 

Interestingly another view can also be argued. Although the Trump phenomenon can be viewed as a lesson in the laws of power, it can also be viewed as a challenge to traditional economics. Mark Buchanan for Bloomberg argues that although Trump’s move to bully companies into keeping jobs in the U.S. can be viewed as foolish or populist, they do raise some important questions about how we should define economic success. 

 

Significant changes are often preceded by small actions. Could Trump’s "nativist' actions be construed as a promotion of a new set of values? The current economic view - that it is acceptable for businesses to move manufacturing jobs to areas where profitability and competitiveness can be enhanced - may simply be outdated….

 

Have Trump voters hinted that companies should have a different set of values? Perhaps an allegiance to their communities and employees? Given the stagnant economic position the vast majority of people find themselves in, how strange is it to suggest that economic purism may have lost its shine?



Either way the Shiller CAPE market valuation ratio is now over 27, which is near the level we saw before the market crashes in 1929, 2000, 2008… Two decades after then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan fretted about asset prices reaching unsustainable levels -- a pronouncement that caused a brief interruption in the U.S. stock rally -- his successors might be tempted to warn again markets are getting ahead of themselves... 



Funnily enough the latest figures from FactSet, a financial-data provider, show that 49% of firms in the S&P 500 index of leading companies are currently rated as “buy”, 45% are rated as “hold”, and just 6% are rated as “sell”. In the past year, 30% of S&P 500 companies yielded negative returns. Keep calm and compound on....LOL



Expect the rally to continue at least into the new year as 90%+ of hedge fundsare trailing their benchmarks and will look to play catch up yet remember that bull markets die of euphoria not pessimism. 

 

Thought of the Week

 

"MASTER THE ART OF TIMING - Never seem to be in a hurry- hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself, and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff out the spirit of the times; the trends that will carry you to power." -Robert Greene

 

Stories and Ideas of Interest

 

  • What risks does the global economy face in 2017? Apart from Donald Trump’s administration as outlined above Nomura has come out with a list of grey swans (“These are the unlikely but impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community”). 
     

    Potential shock 1: U.S. productivity might boom

    Potential shock 2: China might float its currency

    Potential shock 3: The European Union (EU) could reform, leading the U.K. to re-join

    Potential shock 4: Japan inflation might surge

    Potential shock 5: The U.S. Federal Reserve could be muzzled

    Potential shock 6: Russia may flex its muscles

    Potential shock 7: A clearing house may fail

    Potential shock 8: Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe loses power

    Potential shock 9: Emerging market capital controls may return

    Potential shock 10: Paper money may disappear

 

  • It is too early to say the era of low yields is over. The Economist explores how the market has begun pricing in three factors which are usually drivers of higher bond yields —faster growth, rising short-term rates and higher inflation. Nevertheless, this bond-market sell-off needs to be set in context. During the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when the Fed signalled a slowing of its quantitative-easing programme, the ten-year yield reached 3%. It was as high as 2.47% in June last year. Furthermore, it is not clear how much of Mr Trump’s programme will be implemented, nor indeed whether economic growth or inflation will actually rebound. In addition, a rise in bond yields may play a part in choking off economic growth. The ratio of total debt (governments and private sector combined) to GDP has risen in both developed and developing economies since the 2008 crisis. “A large stock of debt needs a low interest rate to make it tolerable. 

 

  • Do you make less than an entry level employee in Silicon Valley?Competition for engineering talent remains fierce in Silicon Valley. The megaplayers offer recruits lavish offices and gourmet cafeterias along with all the usual corporate perks, such as gym memberships and expense accounts. But there's nothing like good, old-fashioned money to entice top talent. An unscientific survey in Bloomberg tries to put a price on some of the hottest jobs in tech. 

 

  • Some of the apparent income mobility in places like Canada or Scandinavia is something of an illusion. Income mobility is a problem for everyone. Most people, in most countries, dream of a world where birth does not limit your status in society. No country has achieved this happy end, though some of them do better than others. Income mobility statistics are created, worried over, analyzed for some sign of possible cures. A new paper out of Sweden suggests that we should perhaps be worrying even more than we do, and that the cures may be harder to come by than we thought. What is interesting here is that if family history is such a major component of financial success then this weakens some of the evidence for supposed present day discrimination…Is redistribution the only way???

 

  • Upset with your government and feeling disillusioned? Move to a seastead. Imagine, for instance, autonomously governed sea platforms, with a limited number of citizens selling health and financial services to the rest of the world. Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence might make the construction and settlement of such institutions more practical than it seemed 15 years ago. Technocratic utopianism or path to greater human companionship?

 

All the best for a productive week,

Logos LP

2 Opportunities With Potentially Explosive Value

Good Morning,

U.S. stocks closed mostly flat on Friday, with financials falling around 1 percent, as investors braced themselves for a key constitutional referendum in Italy while digesting a stronger-than-expected jobs report. In economic news, the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6 percent. Economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 175,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.9 percent. Wages, however, slumped to 2.5 percent.
 
While Friday's jobs data will not deter the central bank from raising rates, it was not a good report as record numbers of workers are no longer looking for work and part-time job creation is far outpacing full-time.
 

Our Take

It is always best not to be caught in the crowd. Take the temperature of the market. This violent Trump rally may not be all that it is perceived to be. Commentators such as Bill Gross warned this week that the Trump rally is built on a false promise of growth. Some of his points are worth considering.
 
Specifically his concerns about US productivity. Gross pointed out that future growth is primarily a function of productivity, which has flat lined for the last several years and shows little promise of accelerating. Gross wrote that “A strong dollar and continuing structural headwinds including aging demographics, de-globalization trade policies, and accelerating debt-to-GDP in almost all countries at now higher interest rates, promise to contain productivity at perhaps 1 percent annual growth rates and therefore real GDP growth at 2 percent.”
 
In addition, analysts at Bank of America Corp. suggested this week that we may be approaching the market’s last hurrah. The crux of the argument is that the firm’s contrarian sell side indicator, which measures Wall Street’s bullishness on equities, jumped to a six-month high in November, its biggest gain in more than a year. Right now, the index is pointing toward a rally of almost 20 percent for U.S. stocks over the next 12-months, but the analysts believe that a rally of that magnitude could mark the end of the bull run. Remember that market euphoria is typically what we see at the end of bull markets and that has been glaringly absent so far in the cycle.

 
Musings
 
Recently, we have been looking at companies with explosive book value that have been selling off in this market. After careful analysis, we have noticed that significant book value growth over the last 10 years (over 2.5x), coupled with sustained high returns on capital over the past 5 years, can provide a glimpse into up-and-coming quality enterprises that may propel higher over the medium term.
 
Some picks of interest:           
 
CGI (TSE: GIB.A): Book value per share nearly quadrupled since 2007 as revenue tripled. Average ROE is above 14% over the last ten years. Company has strong tailwinds going forward and stock is below 200 MA and is down 4% last 3 months. Look for the stock to dip below its 50 MA.
 
Luxoft (NYSE:LXFT): Roaring book value per share growth, more than doubling over past 2 years. Return on Invested Capital has averaged over 35% since 2011. Price to sales is at 2.5, which lower than some consumer non-cyclicals growing at less than inflation, and revenue is expected to hit $1 billion by end 2018 (TTM at $716MM). Stock is down 33% YTD despite record growth and no debt.

 

Thought of the Week
 

"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers." - Edgar Fieldler


Stories and Ideas of Interest

 

  • Silicon Valley has an empathy vacuum. The New Yorker suggests that Silicon Valley’s biggest failing is not poor marketing of its products, or follow-through on promises, but, rather, the distinct lack of empathy for those whose lives are disturbed by its technological wizardry. Living in a bubble can mean different things to different people.

 

  • Tech was supposed to crash in 2016. It got real instead. Sure money isn’t as easy to get as it used to be but the unicorn reckoning expected in 2016 was nigh. Wired magazine looks into a year in tech which looked more like air leaving a balloon rather than a sudden pop.

 

  • An incubator for (former) drug dealers. Amid calls for more job training, less automatic background searching, and other changes that would make it easier for ex-felons to become employees, an alternative idea has slowly taken hold: Encourage them to start their own businesses. Bloomberg takes a look at the largest nonprofit pushing entrepreneurism of this kind: Defy Ventures, based in New York. Over the past six years it has trained more than 500 formerly incarcerated people and incubated more than 150 successful startups.

 

  • Corporate executives have opinions about Donald Trump. Bloomberg has a look at what they’ve been saying. On balance it is safe to say that they are optimistic but most believe that it is too early to speculate about what changes in Washington are going to mean for business. We tend to agree, despite the incredible rotation we have been witnessing in the markets into financials, basic materials and industrials. Be weary of premature herd following. Nevertheless, here’s an interesting look at how the new president might change rules that have made the financial system safer since the 2008 crisis, from most likely to least.

 

 

All the best for a productive week,

Logos LP