How Did Our Top Picks For 2016 Perform? Happy Holidays!

Good Morning,
 

Happy Holidays from Logos LP to you and yours!

Not much to report this week.

U.S. equities closed mostly flat on Friday ahead of the Christmas holiday, as the Dow Jones industrial average failed again to reach the psychologically important level of 20,000.

Canada’s gross domestic product shrank unexpectedly in October as factories suffered their worst month in almost three years, adding to signs the country’s outlook is worsening. The GDP numbers add to recent indicators showing low interest rates and a program of federal government stimulus are so far failing to spur a recovery.

Nevertheless, growth in the U.S.A. should help the TSX to continue its march in 2017. The question is whether and for how long there will be growth. Here’s a frightening factoid for Donald Trump as he prepares to take office next month: Every Republican president since World War II has been in power during at least one recession. Can Trump escape history?

 
Musings
 

Over the next week we will be finishing up our outlook for 2017, as well as assembling our top 4 ideas for the MoneyShow’s 2017 Top Manager Picks Symposium.

Looking back at the performance of our top 4 picks for 2016 which were published by the MoneyShow at the beginning of the year:
 

Peter Mantas:
(NYSE: BRSS) : +63.15%
(NASDAQ: JKHY) : +14.54% 

Matthew Castel:
(NYSE: IBM) : +21.14%
(NYSE: MPC) : -2.04%

If you had blindly bought and held all 4 of these picks in an equal weight portfolio you would have returned 23.85% unlevered YTD.

Stay tuned for our next letter when we offer a similar audit of the other picks we made publicly in 2016 as well as report our 2016 return for Logos LP fund. 

 

Thought of the Week

 

"The is only one happiness in this life, to love and be loved." -George Sand
 


Stories and Ideas of Interest

 

  • The U.S. is now a country that can be ignored. Interesting piece in Bloomberg this week suggesting that one of President Barack Obama's most important legacies is a sense that the U.S. is no longer the dominant global power: It can be ignored. It's a new reality that became apparent this year as various authoritarian regimes and populist movements have tested it out.

     

  • The modern economy is suffering from a spiritual crisis. The main source of meaning in American life is a meritocratic competition that makes those who struggle feel inferior.

           

  • A call for a new strenuous age. Fascinating piece in “The Art of Manliness” deconstructing the great paradox of the modern age; on paper we’ve made the kind of technical progress that should lead to life feeling absolutely amazing…but it doesn’t. Perhaps we should look back to move forward…

     

  • How to win your next political argument. You’ve probably gotten in a political argument in the recent past, whether with your nutso cousin at Thanksgiving or your militantly ignorant co-worker at a happy hour. And you’ll probably get in another political argument sometime in the near future. Hard as it may be to believe, you can actually win these arguments. Here’s how.

          

  • The long-term jobs killer is not China. It’s automation. No candidate talked much about automation on the campaign trail. Technology is not as convenient a villain as China or Mexico, there is no clear way to stop it, and many of the technology companies are in the United States and benefit the country in many ways.

 

 

  • 4 ways to control your emotions in tense moments. The ability to recognize, own, and shape your own emotions is the master skill for deepening intimacy with loved ones, magnifying influence in the workplace, and amplifying our ability to turn ideas into results. Joseph Grenny for HBR shows how his successes and failures have turned on this master skill more than any other.

     

All the best for a productive week,

Logos LP